Predição da distribuição de uma espécie-chave para a restauração e conservação de ecossistemas ripários brasileiros frente às mudanças climáticas.

Abstract

The palm Euterpe edulis Mart., considered a keystone species, plays a fundamental role in maintaining important ecological processes within the ecosystems it inhabits. However, it is currently threatened by intense exploitation and habitat fragmentation. Given the ecological relevance of this species for the conservation and restoration of riparian ecosystems, this study aimed to model its current and future distribution under climate change scenarios, incorporating both climatic and hydrological variables. Occurrence records were obtained from online databases and the scientific literature, and were combined with environmental predictors derived from the WorldClim database (bioclimatic variables) and HydroSHEDS (hydrological variables). Ecological niche modeling was performed in R software using statistical and machine learning algorithms, validated through performance metrics such as ROC and TSS. The results indicated that the potential distribution of E. edulis is strongly associated with climatic factors, including maximum temperature of the warmest month, annual temperature range, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation of the driest month, local drainage area, and total upstream drainage area. It was observed that populations associated with seasonally dry forests show strong dependence on riparian environments, whereas populations occurring in humid forests do not exhibit the same restriction. This difference highlights the importance of conducting separate analyses for these populations in order to more accurately capture the species’ ecological responses. Future climate change projections indicate a marked contraction of climatic suitability for E. edulis, particularly in regions with lower water availability, emphasizing the species’ vulnerability to environmental changes. Conversely, some areas may function as climatic refugia, mainly concentrated in humid zones of the Atlantic Forest. In conclusion, the integration of hydrological and climatic variables improves the understanding of the species’ potential distribution, providing relevant support for conservation and ecological restoration strategies. The results obtained reinforce the urgency of public policies aimed at protecting forest remnants and promoting the sustainable management of Euterpe edulis, ensuring its continued presence as a structural and functional component of riparian ecosystems in the Atlantic Forest.