Climate change and mining threaten the food security of Amazonian populations.

Abstract

Freshwater ecosystems play a fundamental role in the food security of Amazonian human populations, where fish constitutes the main source of nutrients, especially for riverside communities. However, climate change and mining activities have been altering the dynamics of these environments, reducing species distribution areas and exposing vulnerable populations to nutritional risks and contamination by heavy metals. In this context, predictive ecological niche models were used under different time periods (present, 2050, and 2090) and climate scenarios (moderate and pessimistic), integrated with analyses of richness and functional dispersion, to assess the effects of climate change on the nutritional availability of fish for different Amazonian population groups (urban and riverside). Additionally, spatial overlap analyses were carried out between areas of high nutritional richness and zones of legal and illegal mining, to quantify the proportion of these areas that are located within territories under mining activity. The results indicate a significant contraction of areas with high species richness, as well as regions with high richness and functional dispersion, with nutritional losses that may reach up to 67%, affecting population groups similarly. Furthermore, a marked increase in the overlap between nutritionally rich areas and mining regions was observed. These processes may compromise the availability of nutritionally adequate fish and intensify the risks of contamination by heavy metals, placing populations in a situation of food insecurity and greater health vulnerability. These results indicate the need for integrated public policies that reconcile aquatic biodiversity conservation and food security, with environmental management capable of responding to climate change and the expansion of mining in the Amazon.