Dinâmica da produção científica do Brasil

Abstract

In this work, we employ concepts and methods of statistical physics to study the dynamics of scientific output of Brazilian research centers. As a consequence of this investigation, we identify evidence of scaling behavior and universality. We also verify that the Brazilian scientific output goes towards an exponential growth. Moreover, the distribution of the scientific output suggests a lognormal shape which may be connected with the Gibrat's model. However, our analysis indicates that the growth rate follows a exponential distribution (Laplace) and the standard deviation of the growth rate decreases with the scientific output like a power law. These aspects are well reproduced by an generalization of Gibrat model. Our findings are remarkably similar to those observed in the dynamics of economic and scientific research activities. These behaviors are also compared with the dynamics of scientific output from the United States of America and Europe.