Análise do setor calçadista a partir da década de 1990 : o efeito China nas exportações de calçados do Brasil

Abstract

This research aims to analyze footwear sector from 1990 on, highlighting its main features such as number of jobs, industries, domestic and foreign markets. It is mainly emphasized Brazilian, Chinese and other Asian countries competition in the United States, Europe and South America markets. Trough a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) time series estimative with both long and short term analysis in conjunction to the impulse response functions construction for both supply and demand for exports equations from 1990 to 2007 it was shown, through econometric results in demand for footwear exports, that long-term elasticities in combination with the impulse response functions for both exchange and exportation price have positively affected footwear exports. Footwear exports demand has revealed that footwear is a normal good in the United States and Europe because footwear price elasticity in both domestic markets are negative. It was also observed a direct negative effect of China and Asia in Brazilian footwear exports for the United States, Europe and South America markets, demonstrating the China and Asia footwear industry strong advance since 1990.