O ciclo da balança comercial brasileira : uma análise com modelo de vetores autoregressivos para o período de 1980 a 2005

Abstract

The present work intends to undertake a study of the described relations for the basic model of determination of the Trade Balance for the long run, the relevance of the variables that explain of the commercial balance, as well as the lags in the time and the reversion of the cycle of these. This work has as intention to give a new boarding to the problem, inside of a context of cyclical treatment of the variable, added to the empirical analysis by means the model of autoregresivos vectors (VAR). The basic hypothesis that guides the work is that the relation between the country´s commercial balances and the internal product is negative, or either, when the internal income is high, or in growth, has the appearance commercial deficits, therefore this position allows country to absorb external resources. On the other hand, when commercial deficits cannot be supported, the income falls so that the carried through absorption is quit with the exterior, that is, so that the country can pay (with the reduction of its internal product) what it loaned of the remaining portion of the world. The question is that in long periods of time, this process describes a cyclical trajectory. The main gotten results had been that methodology VAR confirms relations between the determinative ones of the described Trade Balance for the economic theory, as well as the direction of its causality. More specifically, the estimates confirm the leading of the Gross domestic product for the Commercial Balance in 2 trimester, and an leading of the externalincome with an imbalance of 4, 5 and 6 trimesters.