O novo consenso macroeconômico e regras de conduta : formação de expectativas e rotatividade

Abstract

The main purpose of this dissertation was to understand the new consensus macroeconomic as many teoric as empirical terms taking into account the different theoretical paradigms emphasized by school of economic thought mainstream. The aim are separate in three parts: first to develop a theoretical framework to point the main papers and theoretical proposition of each school macroeconomic thought; second estimate an equation to catch the variable expectation of inflation or calendar effect on determination of interest rate and third, estimate an equation to catch the effect of variable dummy rotation on determination of interest rate. In order to accomphish this objective, the study will provi de an analysis of impulse response function, variance decomposition, Granger causality testes from vector auto-regression (VAR) estimations. The results suggest that: The new consensus macroeconomic is results of an mix mains theoretical propositon development about monetarists, new-classical, real business cycle (RBC) and newkeynesians research program; On terms empirical there a low significance of variable expectation of inflation to catch the "calendar effect"; There a righ significance of variable output gap; The variable dummy to catch the effect of Rotation have a low significance and a variable deviation of expectation of inflation in relation a inflation target is significance. Thus, we can to state that the behavior of Brasilian Central Bank (BCB) is fit with the new consensus macroeconomic therefore has a concem with the stability of prices, but without leaving of side the responsible of the variable GDP.