O sistema de metas de inflação e a dinâmica macroeconômica brasileira (1999 a 2009)

Abstract

The aim of this study was to study the inflationary targets system and its adoption by Brazil, since 1999, and the results achieved by 2009. Moreover, the study also analyze the dichotomy that the inflation targeting regime presents regard to its relatively good performance in terms of controlling the price level and its difficulty in concealing this positive result on real macroeconomic variables: Gross Domestic Product, unemployment rates and public debt. According to the analysis, it was found that the goals were met in seven years, among the ten years of the regime (1999-2009). This result shows that the targeting system was successful in its inflation control main goal. However, this result proved to be contradictory in relation to the actual performance of the economy, according to selected variables, due to the fact that the targeting system uses the basic interest rate as a main instrument of monetary policy to control prices. Regarding domestic product, we found that it maintained its stop and go trajectory, and that the action of monetary policy on aggregate demand is immediate, i.e., it readily occurs in the same trimester of the Selic rate changes, differently from what is recommended in the economic literature, which says that there is a lag of six to nine months for monetary policy action. Consequently, by affecting the GDP growth, the monetary policy of inflation targeting also affected, albeit indirectly, the employment rates. Thus, the restrictive monetary policy of inflation targeting regime managed to control inflation, in exchange of maintaining a high rate of unemployment. Finally, the internal public debt has also suffered adverse effects, considering that part of this debt is indexed to the Selic rate. Thus, an increase in the Selic rate raises the interest paid to holders of government bonds further burdening the public sector.