Copepoda (Cyclopoida) potencialmente invasor: abordagem integrada de revisão cienciométrica e modelagem de nicho ecológico.

Abstract

This study conducted a scientometric review and ecological niche modeling of the exotic species Mesocyclops ogunnus (Onabamiro, 1957) between 1992 and 2024, aiming to understand its distribution, associated environmental characteristics, and invasive potential. 97 scientific articles were analyzed from the Web of Science, Scopus, SciELO, and Google Scholar databases, filtered by the keywords "Mesocyclops ogunnus" and "M. ogunnus." The publications mostly addressed eutrophic lentic environments, especially reservoirs, demonstrating the eurytopic nature of the species and its ability to colonize a variety of habitats. Generalized Linear Model (GLM) analysis indicated no significant trend in water temperature variation and scientific production over time, highlighting the scarcity of specific studies on the ecological impacts of invasive zooplankton. For niche modeling, occurrence records were from the afore mentioned databases, totaling 228 records (73 native and 155 exotic). The data were filtered, georeferenced into 10-km cells, and used to estimate areas of high environmental suitability. The models indicated high suitability in tropical and subtropical regions, including West and Central Africa, Southeast Asia, northern South America, the southeastern United States, and tropical Oceania. The analysis revealed a shift in the center of the species' climatic niche during its geographic expansion, suggesting both ecological plasticity and niche conservatism. The most influential variables were related to diurnal temperature range, elevation, and minimum temperature in the coldest month. Machine-learning-based models demonstrated a better balance between specificity and sensitivity, being more effective in predicting distribution. The results indicate the need for constant monitoring of vulnerable areas and, therefore, to support public policies for effective measures to control exotic species, for the purpose of conserving biodiversity in tropical and subtropical aquatic ecosystems.